Summary: For more than half a century, U.S. intelligence and defense communities have worked to understand the threats to national and international security from a range of environmental factors, including pollution, population, water and energy resources, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. These assessments include both the risk that these factors will increase the potential for violence, conflict, and war, and the impacts of these issues for U.S. military forces and infrastructure. The public documents listed below comprise the unclassified reports available, which highlight ever-increasing levels of concern about these threats, with the recent exception of the administrations of President Donald Trump, who has explicitly demanded that the defense and intelligence communities delete past research, censor specific words or concepts, cancel research and analysis efforts to identify these threats, and defund programs to prepare forces and infrastructure for environmental threats. Almost all of the past assessments have, however, been archived by different organizations, and links to these resources are provided where possible.
2011 to 2017 Documents
February 8, 2011: The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. The National Military Strategy of the United States of America: Redefining America’s Military Leadership.
Population growth and urbanization in the Middle East, Africa, and South Central Asia will contribute to increased water scarcity and may present governance challenges. The uncertain impact of global climate change combined with increased population centers in or near coastal environments may challenge the ability of weak or developing states to respond to natural disasters.
March 10, 2011: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Statement for the Record. James Clapper, Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Armed Services.
More than 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries. The growing pressure generated by growing populations, urbanization, economic development, and climate change on shared water resources may increase competition and exacerbate existing tensions over these resources. Greater cooperation and coordination to manage these shared resources will be critical to meeting human and development needs. Governing institutions in the developing world often fail to understand water challenges or make the necessary difficult political and economic decisions to correct deficiencies in water quality and quantity for human consumption, agriculture, or industry.
Rapidly changing environmental conditions (e.g., large scale shifts or increases in hydrological variability), political shifts, and/or unilateral development increase the likelihood of conflict over shared water within a basin. Sound institutions that provide a means for raising and addressing concerns reduce the likelihood that disagreements/conflicts will become violent. In the absence of mitigating action, fresh water scarcity at local levels will have wide-ranging implications for US national security. This scarcity will aggravate existing problems-such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions-and thereby threaten state or regional stability. A whole-of-government approach using the best modeling expertise from agencies outside the IC-will be needed to assess the impact of water and other resource scarcity on state stability.
July 1, 2011: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs: EC 1165-2-211. Washington, D.C.
Recent climate research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts continued or accelerated global warming for the 21st Century and possibly beyond, which will cause a continued or accelerated rise in global mean sea-level. Impacts to coastal and estuarine zones caused by sea-level change must be considered in all phases of Civil Works programs. The planning and design of USACE water resource projects in and adjacent to the coastal zone must consider the potential for future accelerated rise in GMSL to affect the local MSL trend.
October 2011: U.S. Department of Defense. Defense Science Board Task Force Report: Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security.
Changes in climate patterns and their impact on the physical environment can create profound effects on populations in parts of the world and present new challenges to global security and stability. Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures.
2011: U.S. Department of Defense. DoDI 4715.03, Natural Resources Conservation Program.
Integrate the DoD Natural Resources Conservation Program with other ASD(EI&E) activities, including, but not limited to, business enterprise integration, environmental management, safety, occupational health, facilities, global climate change, ecosystem services, renewable energy, installations requirements, geographic information systems (GIS), environmental management systems (EMS), the Readiness and Environmental Protection Initiative, project planning programs, and range and training area management and sustainment programs.
All DoD Components shall, in a regionally consistent manner, and to the extent practicable and using the best science available, utilize existing tools to assess the potential impacts of climate change to natural resources on DoD installations, identify significant natural resources that are likely to remain on DoD lands or that may in the future occur on DoD lands and, when not in conflict with mission objectives, take steps to implement adaptive management to ensure the long-term sustainability of those resources.
2011: U.S. Department of Defense. Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan FY2011: Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (AT&L).
“The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review highlighted the importance of managing the effects of climate change, citing energy security and climate change as significant challenges requiring a change in how the Department operates. Climate change is predicted to affect the Department in many ways, including direct effects on installations and less direct impacts such as the destabilization of regions of the world already prone to conflict. Climate change can directly impact military installations and operations by limiting the availability and quality of ranges and other lands needed for operations, and increasing flood and fire hazards and grid vulnerability. The Department’s low-lying installations are threatened by coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise, which can damage or destroy infrastructure, reduce availability of land for operational needs, and perhaps reduce water supply due to seawater intrusion. In areas of the United States with hurricanes, evidence points to more intense hurricanes. In other areas, climate change may increase the intensity of precipitation events, raising the threat of flooding.”
2011: U.S. Army War College. 2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List. Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II. Carlisle, Pennsylvania.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/articles_editorials/455/
On the list of key strategic issues prepared by the U.S. Army War College is:
• Assess potential impact of global climate change on U.S. national security.
2011: National Research Council. Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces, Naval Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Washington, D.C.
“Global sea-level rise is projected to be a major impact of climate change. Many naval coastal installations would be affected and would likely require adaptation. The committee reviewed an assessment of U.S. military coastal installations at risk from coastal inundations caused by sea-level rise. Many of the 31 U.S. military installations identified in the assessment as being at “very high risk” or at “high risk” are naval installations.
U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps coastal installations around the globe will become increasingly susceptible to projected climate events. In the committee’s opinion, U.S. maritime forces are more likely than other U.S. military forces to experience more direct impacts of climate change on their operations, installations, and missions.
U.S. naval leadership should thus continue to exercise a strong voice and leadership in influencing the U.S. and international military adaptive response.”
February 2, 2012: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Intelligence Community Assessment: Global Water Security. ICA 2012-08, 2 February 2012.
“We assess that during the next 10 years, water problems will contribute to instability in states important to US national security interests… water problems — when combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions — contribute to social disruptions that can result in state failure.
“As water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives also will become more likely beyond 10 years.
“the depletion of groundwater supplies in some agricultural areas—owing to poor management—will pose a risk to both national and global food markets... from now through 2040 water shortages and pollution probably will harm the economic performance of important trading partners.
2012: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Worldwide Threat Assessment.
During the next 10 years, water problems will contribute to instability in states important to US national security interests. Water shortages, poor water quality, and floods, by themselves, are unlikely to result in state failure. However, water problems combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions contribute to social disruptions that can result in state failure.
“health threats and natural disasters can not only kill and sicken thousands of people and destroy homes and livelihoods, but also challenge—and potentially destabilize—governments, as they attempt to respond.”
2012: U.S. Department of Defense. FY 2012 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.
“The foundation for DoD’s strategic policy on climate change adaptation began with the publication of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) in 2010 by the Secretary of Defense. The QDR is a principal means by which the tenets of the National Defense Strategy are translated into new policies and initiatives. The QDR sets a long-term course for DoD as the Department assesses the threats and challenges that the nation faces and re-balances DoD’s strategies, capabilities, and forces to address today’s conflicts and tomorrow’s threats. The QDR acknowledged that climate change has national security implications and must be addressed by DoD and its partners.
As articulated in the Department’s Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan, DoD’s sustainability vision is to maintain our ability to operate into the future without decline, either in the mission or the natural and man-made systems that support it. Including climate change and climate variability considerations in our planning processes will enhance operational and infrastructure resilience.
Climate change is expected to play a significant role in DoD’s ability to fulfill its mission in the future. Climate-related effects already are being observed at DoD installations throughout the U.S. and overseas. The physical changes are projected to include rising temperature and sea level and increases in both heavy downpours and the extent of drought. These will cause effects such as more rapid coastal erosion, shifts in growing seasons, and changing water tables.
The direction, degree, and rates of the physical changes will differ by region, as will the impacts to the military’s mission and operations. By taking a proactive, flexible approach to vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning that recognizes uncertainty and incorporates the best available science, the Department can keep pace with changing climate patterns and minimize their impact on operations.”
2012: Department of Defense Strategic Sustainability and Performance Plan FY2012: Department of Defense.
The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review highlighted the importance of managing the effects of climate change, citing energy security and climate change as significant challenges requiring a change in how the Department operates. Climate change is predicted to affect the Department in many ways, including direct effects on installations and less direct impacts such as the destabilization of regions of the world already prone to conflict. Climate change can directly impact military installations and operations by limiting the availability and quality of ranges and other lands needed for operations, and increasing flood and fire hazards and energy grid vulnerability.
January 2013: U.S. Department of Defense. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications. Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP).
“Climate change will have serious implications for the ability of the Department of Defense (DoD) to maintain its natural and built infrastructure and to ensure military readiness. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) requires DoD to conduct climate impact assessments at its permanent installations. Several studies have been completed or are currently underway by the military Services.
“The effects of climate change will adversely impact military readiness and Department of Defense (DoD) natural and built infrastructure unless these risks are considered in DoD decisions. Considerations of future climate conditions need to be incorporated into the planning, design, and operations of military facilities, as well as into the strategic infrastructure decisions facing the military Services and DoD as a whole.
“The effects of climate change are being experienced now and are expected to increase in the coming years, even if aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation efforts are implemented globally. The interaction of climate change with geological and other environmental conditions in different regions will result in a variety of outcomes across the nation. Key coastal climate stressors include rising sea levels and changes in storm intensity and frequency, as well as changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. These changes will increase the vulnerability of military installations, including risks to facilities and infrastructure, natural areas, and operations. Climate models that simulate future climate conditions indicate that the impacts of climate change will grow with time and that the rates of warming and sea level rise in the 21st century will be greater than those in the 20th century. Given the anticipated magnitude and pace of future change, it is likely that many of the steps that can be taken to adapt will be less costly and most cost-effective if they are taken now, rather than in future decades.”
March 12, 2013: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Statement for the Record, James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence. Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
“We now monitor shifts in human geography, climate, disease, and competition for natural resources because they fuel tensions and conflicts. Local events that might seem irrelevant are more likely to affect US national security in accelerated time frames. Risks to freshwater supplies—due to shortages, poor quality, floods, and climate change—are growing. These forces will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, potentially undermining global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia face particular difficulty coping with water problems. Lack of adequate water is a destabilizing factor in countries that do not have the management mechanisms, financial resources, or technical ability to solve their internal water problems.”
March 12, 2013: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Statement for the Record of James R. Clapper. Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
“This year, in both content and organization, this statement illustrates how quickly and radically the world—and our threat environment—are changing. This environment is demanding reevaluations of the way we do business, expanding our analytic envelope, and altering the vocabulary of intelligence. Threats are more diverse, interconnected, and viral than at any time in history. Attacks, which might involve cyber and financial weapons, can be deniable and unattributable. Destruction can be invisible, latent, and progressive. We now monitor shifts in human geography, climate, disease, and competition for natural resources because they fuel tensions and conflicts. Local events that might seem irrelevant are more likely to affect US national security in accelerated time frames.”
May 2013: U.S. Coast Guard. Arctic Strategy.
“The Arctic is a region of highly complicated networks, interests, and governance structures that will continue to evolve with the expansion of maritime activity. The principal drivers of expanding activity include new access to undiscovered resources, increasing interest in adventure tourism, and more economical routes of cargo trans-shipment. These factors are becoming more pronounced through the dynamics of climate change which include a reduction in the amount of sea ice, diminishment of permafrost, and expansion of ice-free ocean…
Climate-change impacts in Alaska are already apparent, including earlier spring snowmelt, reduced sea ice, widespread glacier retreat, warmer permafrost, drier landscapes, and more extensive insect outbreaks and wildfires. Climate change and technological innovations are reshaping many activities and fostering growth.
These increasing and sometimes competing uses will challenge norms of safety, security, and environmental sustainability throughout the region.”
2013: Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. National Research Council. Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis. National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
“Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications.”
2013: U.S. Department of Defense. Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) Implementation Manual, DoDM 4715.03.
"All DoD Components shall, in a regionally consistent manner, and to the extent practicable and using the best science available, utilize existing tools to assess the potential impacts of climate change to natural resources on DoD installations, identify significant natural resources that are likely to remain on DoD lands or that may in the future occur on DoD lands and, when not in conflict with mission objectives, take steps to implement adaptive management to ensure the long-term sustainability of those resources."
January 29, 2014: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Statement for the Record, Director James Clapper, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
"Risks to freshwater supplies—due to shortages, poor quality, floods, and climate change—are growing. These forces will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, potentially undermining global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia particularly will particularly face difficulty coping with water problems. Lack of adequate water is a destabilizing factor in developing countries that do not have the management mechanisms, financial resources, or technical ability to solve their internal water problems. Other states are further stressed by heavy dependence on river water controlled by upstream nations with unresolved water-sharing issues. Wealthier developing countries will probably face increasing water-related, social disruptions, although they are capable of addressing water problems without risk of state failure."
February 2014: U.S. Department of the Navy. Update from 2009: US Navy Arctic Roadmap, 2014-2030, Chief of Naval Operations.
"Anticipating the impacts of climate change, the Navy will take deliberate steps to prepare for near-term (2014-2020), mid-term (2020-2030), and far-term (beyond 2030) Arctic Ocean operations. As security conditions change and the Arctic Region becomes more accessible, the Navy will re-evaluate its preparedness.
"This Navy Arctic Roadmap update underscores the need to develop strong cooperative partnerships with interagency and international Arctic Region stakeholders. It acknowledges the role climate change plays in energy security, research and science, the economy, fisheries, tourism, the assertion of sovereignty, and other related issues. To be prepared to address the emerging challenges caused by the opening of the Arctic Ocean waters, this Roadmap recognizes that changes in the environment must be continuously examined and taken into account."
June 2014. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America.
“Many governments will face challenges to meet even the basic needs of their people as they confront demographic change, resource constraints, effects of climate change, and risks of global infectious disease outbreaks. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions—conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence. The risk of conflict and mass atrocities may increase.”
October 28, 2014: U.S. Pacific Command. El Nino: Potential Asia Pacific Impacts.
“Weather shocks represent a major threat to global security. Climate stress increases risk of conflict, particularly among agriculturally dependent economies. The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) declared climate-induced stressors as threat multipliers among the world’s fragile regions. An empirical relationship between higher temperatures and sub-state violence has been demonstrated in a number of studies. The stability of modern societies – not just in ancient times – relates strongly to global climate. Building on these earlier works, our white paper specifically looks at various scenarios that could happen during a strong El Niño year. Using the latest findings in meteorology and social science, this study is organized into two major parts: (1) the fundamental science and prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, and (2) ten potential security scenarios that may be induced or exacerbated by El Niño.”
2014: U.S. Department of Defense. Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan FY2014.
"The SSPP addresses climate change, which has an impact on national security, whether by increasing global instability, opening the Arctic, or increasing sea level and storm surge near our coastal installations. We are actively integrating climate considerations across the full spectrum of our activities to ensure a ready and resilient force.”
2014: U.S. Department of Defense. Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.
“Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict. They will likely lead to food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe.
“In our defense strategy, we refer to climate change as a “threat multiplier” because it has the potential to exacerbate many of the challenges we are dealing with today – from infectious disease to terrorism. We are already beginning to see some of these impacts.
“A changing climate will have real impacts on our military and the way it executes its missions. The military could be called upon more often to support civil authorities, and provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the face of more frequent and more intense natural disasters. Our coastal installations are vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased flooding, while droughts, wildfires, and more extreme temperatures could threaten many of our training activities. Our supply chains could be impacted, and we will need to ensure our critical equipment works under more extreme weather conditions. Weather has always affected military operations, and as the climate changes, the way we execute operations may be altered or constrained.
“While scientists are converging toward consensus on future climate projections, uncertainty remains. But this cannot be an excuse for delaying action. Every day, our military deals with global uncertainty. Our planners know that, as military strategist Carl von Clausewitz wrote, “all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight.”
2014: CNA Military Advisory Board. National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change. Alexandria, VA: CNA Corporation.
“Projected climate change is a complex multi-decade challenge. Without action to build resilience, it will increase security risks over much of the planet. It will not only increase threats to developing nations in resource-challenged parts of the world, but it will also test the security of nations with robust capability, including significant elements of our National Power here at home. Even though we may not have 100 percent certainty as to the cause or even the exact magnitude of the impacts, the risks associated with projected climate change warrant taking action today to plan and prepare for changes in our communities, at home and abroad. The update serves as a bipartisan call to action.
“It makes a compelling case that climate change is no longer a future threat—it is taking place now. It observes that climate change serves as a catalyst of conflict in vulnerable parts of the world, and that projected changes in global migration patterns will make the challenges even more severe. It identifies threats to elements of National Power here at home, particularly those associated with our infrastructure and our ability to maintain military readiness.
“The update makes clear that actions to build resilience against the projected impacts of climate change are required today. We no longer have the option to wait and see.”
2014: U.S. Department of Defense. Quadrennial Defense Review.
“The impacts of climate change may increase the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions, including defense support to civil authorities, while at the same time undermining the capacity of our domestic installations to support training activities. Our actions to increase energy and water security, including investments in energy efficiency, new technologies, and renewable energy sources, will increase the resiliency of our installations and help mitigate these effects.
"Climate change poses another significant challenge for the United States and the world at large. As greenhouse gas emissions increase, sea levels are rising, average global temperatures are increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating. These changes, coupled with other global dynamics, including growing, urbanizing, more affluent populations, and substantial economic growth in India, China, Brazil, and other nations, will devastate homes, land, and infrastructure. Climate change may exacerbate water scarcity and lead to sharp increases in food costs. The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.
"Finally, the Department will employ creative ways to address the impact of climate change, which will continue to affect the operating environment and the roles and missions that U.S. Armed Forces undertake. The Department will remain ready to operate in a changing environment amid the challenges of climate change and environmental damage.”
February 2015: The White House. National Security Strategy. Washington, D.C.
“Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water. The present day effects of climate change are being felt from the Arctic to the Midwest. Increased sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal regions, infrastructure, and property. In turn, the global economy suffers, compounding the growing costs of preparing and restoring infrastructure.”
February 2015: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper. Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“Extreme weather, climate change, and public policies that affect food and water supplies will probably create or exacerbate humanitarian crises and instability risks... Risks to freshwater supplies—due to shortages, poor quality, floods, and climate change—are growing. These problems hinder the ability of countries to produce food and generate energy, potentially undermining global food markets and hobbling economic growth. Combined with demographic and economic development pressures, such problems will particularly hinder the efforts of North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia to cope with their water problems. Lack of adequate water might be a destabilizing factor in countries that lack the management mechanisms, financial resources, political will, or technical ability to solve their internal water problems.
"Some states are heavily dependent on river water controlled by upstream nations. When upstream water infrastructure development threatens downstream access to water, states might attempt to exert pressure on their neighbors to preserve their water interests. Such pressure might be applied in international forums and also includes pressing investors, nongovernmental organizations, and donor countries to support or halt water infrastructure projects. Some countries will almost certainly construct and support major water projects. Over the longer term, wealthier developing countries will also probably face increasing water-related social disruptions. Developing countries, however, are almost certainly capable of addressing water problems without risk of state failure. Terrorist organizations might also increasingly seek to control or degrade water infrastructure to gain revenue or influence populations.”
March 2015: U.S. Departments of the Navy, the Marine Corps and the Coast Guard. A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power.
“Environmental trends are increasingly shaping the maritime security environment, particularly in the littorals where most of the world’s population resides. Climate change–enhanced storms, rising sea levels, and coastal flooding are disproportionately affecting many island nations. This may trigger social instability and more frequent humanitarian assistance and disaster response operations. Rising ocean temperatures present new challenges and opportunities, most notably in the Arctic and Antarctic, where receding ice leads to greater maritime activity. In the coming decades, the Arctic Ocean will be increasingly accessible and more broadly used by those seeking access to the region’s abundant resources and trade routes. The predicted rise in maritime activity, including oil and gas exploration, commercial fishing, tourism, and mineral mining, is expected to increase the region’s strategic importance over time.”
May 2015: U.S. Department of Defense. Annual Energy Management Report FY 2014.
This Annual Energy Management Report (AEMR) details the Department’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 performance toward its objectives of energy supply expansion, energy efficiency and demand reduction, and the adaption of future forces and advanced technologies on fixed installations. It also details its activities addressing climate change impacts to its energy portfolio, including enhancing energy resilience.
July 23, 2015: U.S. Department of Defense. National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate: Report to Congress. Submitted in response to a request contained in Senate Report 113-211, H.R. 4870, the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2015.
“This report responds to the Congressional request to the Department of Defense to identify the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each Combatant Command, the ways in which the Combatant Commands are integrating mitigation of these risks into their planning processes, and a description of the resources required for an effective response.”
“DoD recognizes the reality of climate change and the significant risk it poses to U.S. interests globally. The National Security Strategy, issued in February 2015, is clear that climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources such as food and water. These impacts are already occurring, and the scope, scale, and intensity of these impacts are projected to increase over time.”
“Identify the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each Combatant Command.
“Identify ways Combatant Commands integrate risk mitigation in their planning processes, including in the areas of:
• Humanitarian disaster relief;
• Security cooperation;
• Building partner capacity; and
• Sharing best practices for mitigation of installation vulnerabilities.
“Describe resources required for an effective response and the timeline of resources needs.
2015: U.S. Department of Defense. DoD Instruction 3200.21 “Sustaining Access to the Live Training Domain”
(1) Evaluate the risks to training and range capability from the impacts of climate change trends.
(2) As climate science advances and as future climate scenarios and predictive tools are adopted by DoD, incorporate scenarios and predictive tools into evaluations of climate change impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies.
2015: U.S. Department of Defense. Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan FY2015.
"The SSPP addresses climate change, which is having an impact on national security, whether by contributing to global instability, opening passages through the Arctic, or increasing sea level and storm surge near our coastal installations. We are actively integrating climate considerations across the full spectrum of our activities to ensure a ready and capable force. Our efforts will improve the resiliency of our fixed installations and further embed sustainability considerations into the conduct of DoD business."
January 2016: National Commission on the Future of the Army. Report to the President and the Congress of the United States, as required by the National Defense Authorization Act of 2015.
"Globally, climate change has numerous implications for national security. Warming trends are lessening agricultural productivity in many areas and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. The resulting food and water insecurities may increase resource competition between and within states. Changes in the Arctic have the potential to create benefits for the global economy, but may also become a flashpoint for confrontation. Russia has ambitious designs on the resource-rich Arctic region and has substantially expanded its Arctic forces. In addition to overlapping claims by Arctic nations, many non-Arctic nations, including China, have strong interests in facilitating access to low-cost shipping routes and Arctic resources."
January 14, 2016: U.S. Department of Defense. DoD Directive 4715.21: Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience.
"In accordance with the direction in Executive Order 13653, this issuance establishes policy and assigns responsibilities to provide the DoD with the resources necessary to assess and manage risks associated with the impacts of climate change. This involves deliberate preparation, close cooperation, and coordinated planning by the DoD to:
• Facilitate federal, State, local, tribal, private sector, and nonprofit sector efforts to improve climate preparedness and resilience, and to implement the 2014 DoD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.
• Help safeguard U.S. economy, infrastructure, environment, and natural resources.
• Provide for the continuity of DoD operations, services, and programs.
February 2016: U.S. Department of Defense. Joint Publication 1-02: Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. Modified from November 8, 2010.
“Climate change — Variations in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer that encompass increases and decreases in temperature, shifts in precipitation, and changing risk of certain types of severe weather events. (DODD 4715.21)”
February 2016: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper. Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“Extreme weather, climate change, environmental degradation, related rising demand for food and water, poor policy responses, and inadequate critical infrastructure will probably exacerbate—and potentially spark—political instability, adverse health conditions, and humanitarian crises in 2016. Several of these developments, especially those in the Middle East, suggest that environmental degradation might become a more common source for interstate tensions.”
September 21, 2016: U.S. National Intelligence Council. Implications for U.S. National Security of Anticipated Climate Change. NIC WP 2016-01.
“Long-term changes in climate will produce more extreme weather events and put greater stress on critical Earth systems like oceans, freshwater, and biodiversity. These in turn will almost certainly have significant effects, both direct and indirect, across social, economic, political, and security realms during the next 20 years. These effects will be all the more pronounced as people continue to concentrate in climate-vulnerable locations, such as coastal areas, water-stressed regions, and ever-growing cities.
“Climate change and its resulting effects are likely to pose wide-ranging national security challenges for the United States and other countries over the next 20 years through the following pathways:
• Threats to the stability of countries.
• Heightened social and political tensions.
• Adverse effects on food prices and availability.
• Increased risks to human health.
• Negative impacts on investments and economic competitiveness.
• Potential climate discontinuities and secondary surprises.”
2016: U.S. Department of Defense. Report to Congress on Strategy to Protect the United States National Security Interests in the Arctic Region.
“According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the planet. To operate safely and effectively in the region, DoD must adapt current and future operations to address the effects of environmental changes through: identification and assessment of the effects of climate change on the DoD mission; taking those effects into consideration in developing plans and implementing procedures; and anticipating and managing any risks that develop as a result of climate change to build resilience to the changing operational environment in the Arctic.”
2016: U.S. Department of Defense. Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan FY2016.
"Just as sustainability directly affects the ability of DoD to perform its mission in the future, so does the Department’s ability to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. Sustainability and adaptation to climate change go hand in hand with DoD’s efforts to ensure resilience and success. Climate change is a clear national security concern, affecting us today and forecast to affect us more in the future. To address this concern, the Department issued DoD Directive (DoDD) 4715.21, Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience, on 14 January 2016, which establishes policy, roles, and responsibilities for the integration of climate change resilience across the Defense enterprise."
2016: U.S. Department of Defense. Hall, J.A., et al., Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide. Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program.
“Global change, including climate change, poses unique challenges to the Department of Defense (DoD). In particular, coastal military sites, and their associated natural and built infrastructure, operations, and readiness capabilities, are vulnerable to the impacts of rising global sea level and local extreme water level (EWL) events.”
January 2017: U.S. National Intelligence Council. Global Trends: Paradox of Progress. NIC 2017-001. ISBN 978-0-16-093614-2.
“Changes in the climate will produce more extreme weather events and put greater stress on humans and critical systems, including oceans, freshwater, and biodiversity. These changes, in turn, will have direct and indirect social, economic, political, and security effects. Extreme weather can trigger crop failures, wildfires, energy blackouts, infrastructure breakdown, supply chain breakdowns, migration, and infectious disease outbreaks. Such events will be more pronounced as people concentrate in climate vulnerable locations, such as cities, coastal areas, and water-stressed regions.”
March 14, 2017: Statement to the U.S. Senate Armed Forces Committee by Secretary of Defense, James Mattis.
https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/11/21/update-chronology-of-u-s-military-statements-and-actions-on-climate-change-and-security-2017-2018/
https://www.propublica.org/article/trumps-defense-secretary-cites-climate-change-national-security-challenge?utm_campaign=bt_twitter&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
“Climate change is impacting stability in areas of the world where our troops are operating today. It is appropriate for the Combatant Commands to incorporate drivers of instability that impact the security environment in their areas into their planning.”
“Climate change can be a driver of instability and the Department of Defense must pay attention to potential adverse impacts generated by this phenomenon.”
“As I noted above, climate change is a challenge that requires a broader, whole-of government response. If confirmed, I will ensure that the Department of Defense plays its appropriate role within such a response by addressing national security aspects.”
“I agree that the effects of a changing climate — such as increased maritime access to the Arctic, rising sea levels, desertification, among others — impact our security situation. I will ensure that the department continues to be prepared to conduct operations today and in the future, and that we are prepared to address the effects of a changing climate on our threat assessments, resources, and readiness.”
May 2017: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
"We assess national security implications of climate change but do not adjudicate the science of climate change. In assessing these implications, we rely on US government-coordinated scientific reports, peer-reviewed literature, and reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the leading international body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change."
July 11, 2017: U.S. Senate. Statement by the nominee for Secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer.
“Sen. Warren: Mr. Spencer, do you believe the climate is changing and that climate change will continue to affect the Navy’s installations and missions?
Captain Spencer: Senator, the Navy, from my briefings to date, is totally aware of the rising water issue, storm issues, et cetera. We must protect our infrastructure, and I will work hard to make sure we are keeping an eye on that because without the infrastructure, we lose readiness…
Sen. Warren: And, if confirmed, under your leadership will the Navy prepare for climate change? I think this is where you are going about readiness. And I want to say that both in terms of repairing our own bases and installations and preparing for the crisis and the insecurity that climate change will exacerbate around the world.
Captain Spencer: Yes, Senator.
Sen. Warren: Good. You know, in his farewell speech in front of sailors and marines, former Navy Secretary Mabus warned that if we don’t act on climate change, instability around the globe will inevitably intensify and even our bases will risk being lost. I think he’s right, and I’m counting on you Mr. Spencer to carry on where Secretary Mabus left off and to ensure that we adapt to this threat and we are ready."
July 18, 2017: U.S. Senate. Statement of General Paul J. Selva, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs on Climate Instability and Political Instability to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“The dynamics that are happening in our climate will drive uncertainty and will drive conflict. And I’ll just provide one example of how that can happen and this is a man-made problem. The dams along the Nile River control the flow of water into what was the Fertile Crescent of Egypt, and any change to that water flow causes the Egyptians to become more hostile to their neighbors who are putting dams upstream of the Egyptian stretch of the Nile River... If you extend that argument to the kinds of things that might happen if we see tidal rises, if we see increasing weather patterns of drought and flood and forest fires and other natural events that happen inside of our environment, then we’re gonna have to be prepared for what that means in terms of the potential for instability in regions of the country where those impacts happen... The Sahel in Africa is a classic example, where a small drought over a limited period of time can decimate the crops and cause instability and make that an area fertile for recruitment of extremists because they see no other way. Similarly you could look at the decimation of the fisheries off Somalia that contributed to piracy because the fishermen couldn’t make their livelihood by doing what they do best, which is fishing on the fishing grounds off of Somalia. So I think we need to be prepared for those. It will cause us to have to address questions like humanitarian disaster relief. It will also cause us to have to focus on places where climate instability might cause actual political instability in regions of the world we hadn’t previously had to pay attention to…”
July 26, 2017: U.S. Department of Defense. Statement by Assistant Secretary of Defense Niemeyer: Climate Plays Pivotal Role in Military Mission.
“Yes, the climate plays a pivotal role in DoD’s ability to execute our missions. The Department has always considered risks from climate related effects such as high winds, precipitation, extreme temperatures and drought to mission readiness and execution. As Secretary Mattis has stated “the Department should be prepared to mitigate any consequences of a changing climate, including ensuring that our shipyards and installations will continue to function as required… I agree that the Department must be prepared for extreme weather, but in the long run DoD must plan now to ensure it can meet future mission requirements to remain a ready and resilient fighting force. If confirmed, I will work with the Military Departments to ensure our facilities and installation plans appropriately consider the impact of a changing climate.”
November 13, 2017: U.S. General Accounting Office. Climate Change Adaptation. DOD Needs to Better Incorporate Adaptation into Planning and Collaboration at Overseas Installations. GAO-18-206.
“According to DOD, climate change will have serious implications on the ability to maintain infrastructure and ensure military readiness. DOD has identified risks posed by climate change and begun to integrate adaptation in guidance. GAO was asked to assess DOD's actions to adapt overseas infrastructure to the expected challenges of climate change.
“The expected impacts of weather effects associated with climate change pose operational and budgetary risks to overseas infrastructure according to the Department of Defense (DOD), but DOD does not consistently track the impacts' estimated costs. Operational risks (including interruptions to training, testing, and missions) and budgetary risks (including costs of repairing damages) are linked to these impacts. However, installations inconsistently track these costs because there is no requirement for such tracking. Without a requirement to systematically track such costs, DOD will not have the information it needs to integrate climate-related impact resource considerations into future budgets."
December 2017: The White House. National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Washington D.C.
“Climate policies will continue to shape the global energy system. U.S. leadership is indispensable to countering an anti-growth energy agenda that is detrimental to U.S. economic and energy security interests. Given future global energy demand, much of the developing world will require fossil fuels, as well as other forms of energy, to power their economies and lift their people out of poverty. The United States will continue to advance an approach that balances energy security, economic development, and environmental protection. The United States will remain a global leader in reducing traditional pollution, as well as greenhouse gases, while expanding our economy.”
2017: U.S. Congress. 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, H.R. 2810 of the 115th Congress, Washington, D.C.
SEC. 335. REPORT ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.
(a) FINDINGS.—Congress makes the following findings:
(1) Secretary of Defense James Mattis has stated: ‘‘It is appropriate for the Combatant Commands to incorporate drivers of instability that impact the security environment in their areas into their planning.’’.
(2) Secretary of Defense James Mattis has stated: ‘‘I agree that the effects of a changing climate — such as increased maritime access to the Arctic, rising sea levels, desertification, among others — impact our security situation.’’.
(3) Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford has stated: ‘‘It’s a question, once again, of being forward deployed, forward engaged, and be in a position to respond to the kinds of natural disasters that I think we see as a second or third order effect of climate change.’’.
(4) Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has stated: ‘‘Over the next 20 years and more, certain pressures-population, energy, climate, economic, environmental-could combine with rapid cultural, social, and technological change to produce new sources of deprivation, rage, and instability.’’.
(5) Former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army Gordon Sullivan has stated: ‘‘Climate change is a national security issue. We found that climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world.’’.
(6) The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has stated: ‘‘Many countries will encounter climate induced disruptions—such as weather-related disasters, drought, famine, or damage to infrastructure—that stress their capacity to respond, cope with, or adapt. Climate-related impacts will also contribute to increased migration, which can be particularly disruptive if, for example, demand for food and shelter outstrips the resources available to assist those in need.’
(7) The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has stated: ‘‘DOD links changes in precipitation patterns with potential climate change impacts such as changes in the number of consecutive days of high or low precipitation as well as increases in the extent and duration of droughts, with an associated increase in the risk of wildfire. . . this may result in mission vulnerabilities such as reduced live-fire training due to drought and increased wildfire risk.’’
(8) A three-foot rise in sea levels will threaten the operations of more than 128 United States military sites, and it is possible that many of these at-risk bases could be submerged in the coming years.
(9) As global temperatures rise, droughts and famines can lead to more failed states, which are breeding grounds of extremist and terrorist organizations.
(10) In the Marshall Islands, an Air Force radar installation built on an atoll at a cost of $1,000,000,000 is projected to be underwater within two decades.
(11) In the western United States, drought has amplified the threat of wildfires, and floods have damaged roads, runways, and buildings on military bases.
(12) In the Arctic, the combination of melting sea ice, thawing permafrost, and sea-level rise is eroding shorelines, which is damaging radar and communication installations, runways, seawalls, and training areas.
(13) In the Yukon Training Area, units conducting artillery training accidentally started a wildfire despite observing the necessary practices during red flag warning conditions.
(b) SENSE OF CONGRESS.—It is the sense of Congress that—
(1) climate change is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and is impacting stability in areas of the world both where the United States Armed Forces are operating today, and where strategic implications for future conflict exist;
(2) there are complexities in quantifying the cost of climate change on mission resiliency, but the Department of Defense must ensure that it is prepared to conduct operations both today and in the future and that it is prepared to address the effects of a changing climate on threat assessments, resources, and readiness; and
(3) military installations must be able to effectively prepare to mitigate climate damage in their master planning and infrastructure planning and design, so that they might best consider the weather and natural resources most pertinent to them.
See Part III for Documents from 2012 to present.
